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Too big to fail, too small to survive?

Michalis Thomadakis
Άρθρο της Grant Thornton για την ενεργειακή σκακιέρα στην Ελλάδα

When changes happen fast, then time has more value. In a world of agility, it is hard to believe that colossal, capital intensive energy companies need to change or die, in a matter of a few months or very few years. No one in this new energy future is too big to fail.

It is even harder for the average entrepreneur or energy consumer to realize the pace of changes that happen all around. The vast majority of them probably have no idea that in the following few years, the way that they will have to buy or sell the energy to cover their needs will be, more or less, a click on the screen of their cellular phone or tablet away. Very few of them know that they will be the prosumers (the new term in energy, meaning the simultaneous role of a consumer who is also a producer) of the future, who will have the opportunity, or the obligation, to trade in a complex energy environment, where thousands or even millions of other prosumers, behind the Internet of Things, will also trade for their everyday energy living. But this is what really happens all around, especially for the citizens of the European Union, including Greece, even if we can see only very few elements of this new reality yet.

This will be the ultimate result of the structural changes already in progress in the European Energy market and beyond. In countries like Greece, where the almost twenty years of unfinished efforts to implement what we call EU Acquis on energy are currently leading to the abrupt, tectonic change of the landscape, it is difficult to consider the notion of prosumer and the forthcoming agility of the energy trading. However, this will be the inevitable outcome of the strong convergence of the power, gas and renewable sectors, facilitated by the rapid development of new technologies in all sectors, including artificial intelligence, block chain, energy storage and big data handling.

For the time being, the reforms in the Greek energy sector are taking place along two axes. The first relates to the choice granted to all Greek energy consumers, in both gas and electricity, to pick the energy supplier of their choice, accompanied by the removal of all regulated end user prices. The second relates to the structural change in the market rules for the power, gas and renewables’ markets. The implementation of the EU Target Model, in both gas and power, and the abandonment of the old FiT regime in Renewables, with the simultaneous introduction of auctions as a means for the entrance of new RES capacity to the market define this axis.

Energy & resources

Energy markets worldwide are undergoing major changes. The Greek and South-East European market in particular, are in a steep transitional phase.

Find out how Grant Thornton can help you with its expertise in energy markets here.

We are, therefore, entering into an era, where nothing remains as it was. The fast removal of the barriers establishes a new energy market reality, where utilities of the very recent past change structure and hands, and hopefully mentality and future, traditional market participants are striving to define their new strategy and position in this new era and those who were not so much involved in the energy market and landscape are testing the waters, wondering if now is the time for them to enter into what looks like a promising market.

Greece is among the last European countries that established an Energy Exchange, even later than some of its neighbors. The Hellenic Energy Exchange (HEnEx) has now become operational, offering new ways of energy trading, new elements for risk mitigation, new facilities and ways of integration to the regional power and gas markets. However, it also brings the need for all energy market participants to learn the new rules, become familiar with the new elements of the power and gas markets and develop new tools for the elaboration of their strategy in the much more complicated and extended energy trading environment. They now need to think globally, in a market where for ages people were confined in their national borders, waiting for the incumbents to, more or less, set the pace of the energy market operation. They need to learn fast how to become competitive and strike the best deals in the neighborhood, in practically real time terms, around the clock, all year long, but also for the years to come. Futures are probably called that way, because they force people to think about the future and this is what HEnEx, and the numerous other power exchanges in the region and the rest of Europe will offer to energy market participants very soon. Acting globally is the only risk mitigation mechanism successful market participants will need to possess. Either producers, consumers or traders, they need to establish ways of addressing the whole region around Greece, otherwise they will have to step aside.

But also energy consumers will need to learn. If not, the complexity of the new energy market environment, then the need to carefully choose their supplier, with the view to avoid unpleasant surprises related to the uninterruptible provision of their power and gas, at prices that are competitive in the long run.

In the route through the present transitional phase of the energy market to the next, whether we like it or not, not all of the current players will survive. The new market environment is a place for big, vertically integrated energy companies, with the appropriate size to survive. They will have a diverse portfolio of production capacity, comprising both conventional –mostly gas fired- and renewable units and will trade power, gas and emissions at a global scale. They will have established new ways of approaching their customers, offering the best possible product and services, but mainly security, knowledge and full coverage of consumer’s needs. It is, therefore, crucial for newcomers to make the right choices and act in utmost prudence and care. If they do not analyze the market conditions, but, most importantly, their real capabilities in human and financial resources carefully, it would probably be better for them to invest in something else, or adjust their expectations to what they can really do. Establishing partnerships or finding synergies with others, is one of the most appropriate ways to mitigate the risks the new energy market environment implies. They need to consider if they are too small to survive and strike the right balance to this end.